![]() ![]() Similar conditions will hold for most countries of the Global South, calling for particular attention on African countries 10. Due to heterogeneous conditions and often broadly undersampled testing and reporting, the future outbreak dynamics in Africa remains largely unclear.Īcross the African continent, national economic constraints, individual poverty, low health literacy rates, weaker health care systems and cultural practices lead to reduced option spaces for interventions on personal and governmental levels and may all contribute to more severe consequences of the COVID-19 outbreak and negatively influence containment as well as recording, testing and medical treatment 9. Across all these countries, the total number of cases is increasing. ![]() Of those, the largest number of COVID-19 patients is reported in South Africa with about 5300 cases and 100 (about 1.9%) deaths as of Ap2, 8. As of April 30th, several countries in Europe are reporting more than 100,000 cases each and the United States alone reports above 1 Million cases.Īt the same time, Africa as a continent with a population of 1.3 billion people (as of 2018 5) has reported only about 24,000 cases 2, 6, 7. It thereby succeeded to suppress the outbreak dynamics to subexponential growth patterns 4 and in April 2020 is reporting a total of 83,500 cases and at most 130 new cases daily for now more than 5 weeks 2. Mainland China was the first region hit by the outbreak in January 2020 and had taken rapid and severe interventions including an almost complete lockdown for 11 weeks. The resulting vast number, broad geographical distribution, and intensity of globally enacted socio-economic interventions is unprecedented in modern human history. There is currently no specific medical intervention known against SARS-CoV-2 and preventive vaccination options are not yet available. By death toll, the resulting Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak will likely soon become the largest pandemic of the 21st century so far 3. The severe acute respiratory syndrom coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has reached more than 200 countries and territories across all continents 1, 2. ![]() Yet, enduring, slightly stronger or more specific interventions, combined with sufficient compliance, may constitute a viable option for interventions for South Africa. Moreover, large-scale agent-based simulations given different future scenarios for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality with 1.14 million inhabitants, based on detailed activity and mobility survey data of about 10% of the population, similarly suggest that current containment may be insufficient to not overload local intensive care capacity. Past data indicate strongly reduced but still supracritical growth after lockdown. Here we analyze the impact of interventions on outbreak dynamics for South Africa, exhibiting the largest case numbers across sub-saharan Africa, before and after their national lockdown. Simultaneously, required strengths of intervention measures are strongly debated because containing COVID-19 in favor of the weak health care system largely conflicts with socio-economic hardships. The future dynamics of the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in African countries is largely unclear. ![]()
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